US dollar falls, metals nearly all rise, polysilicon up over 5%, black commodities collectively rally, generally up over 1% [SMM Daily Review]

SMM July 10 News:

Metals Market:

As of daytime session close, most base metals in the domestic market rose, with only SHFE copper declining 0.39% approximately. SHFE zinc, SHFE tin, and SHFE nickel all surged over 1%, with SHFE zinc up 1.38%, SHFE tin up 1.2%, and SHFE nickel up 1.41%. Main alumina contracts rose 2.75%, while main foundry aluminum contracts increased 0.53%.

Additionally, main lithium carbonate contracts fell 0.43%, main polysilicon contracts surged 5.5%, and main silicon metal contracts climbed 3.74%. Main European container shipping contracts rose 1.62% to close at 2022.5.Z5/>The ferrous metals series generally posted gains exceeding 1%, with iron ore up 3.67%, rebar up 1.89%, HRC up 2.16%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 4.24% while coke increased 3.56%.

In overseas markets, as of 15:03, base metals collectively rose in the overseas market, with LME nickel leading at 1.17% growth, followed by LME tin up 0.95% and LME zinc up 0.89%. Other metals showed relatively small fluctuations.

Precious metals saw COMEX gold up 0.34% and COMEX silver up 0.45% as of 15:03. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.49% and SHFE silver increased 0.22%.

Market movements as of 15:03 today

》Click to view SMM market dashboard

Macro Front

Domestic Context:

[H1 China's auto production and sales both exceeded 15 million units with NEVs shining] Data released by CAAM today (10th) shows the automotive market maintained strong momentum from January to June, with production and sales both surpassing 15 million units, achieving over 10% YoY growth. Specifically, NEV production and sales reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million units respectively, up 41.4% and 40.3% YoY. NEVs accounted for 44.3% of total new vehicle sales. In exports, auto shipments totaled 3.083 million units in H1, up 10.4% YoY, including 1.06 million NEV exports which surged 75.2% YoY. CAAM officials stated the domestic market improved significantly under the continued effect of the automotive trade-in policy, with over 10% YoY growth providing strong support for overall market expansion. NEVs maintained rapid growth momentum with rising market share, driving industrial transformation and upgrading. Looking forward to H2, the "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins" will continue orderly implementation. Coupled with enriched new product offerings from enterprises, this will help sustain auto consumption growth and maintain healthy industry operations. (CCTV News)

[Ministry of Natural Resources: China Discovered 38 New Mineral Sites in H1, Up 31% YoY] On July 10, the Ministry of Natural Resources announced that major breakthroughs were achieved in prospecting for important minerals in China during H1 2025, with 38 new mineral sites discovered and continued growth in non-oil and gas mineral exploration investment. In the first half of this year, China discovered 38 new mineral sites, up 31% YoY, including 25 large and medium-sized sites. Non-oil and gas mineral exploration investment reached 6.693 billion yuan in H1, up 23.9% YoY, maintaining rapid growth momentum. Niu Li, Deputy Director General of the Department of Geological Survey Management at the Ministry of Natural Resources, stated that from the perspective of H1 mineral exploration investment structure, social capital reached 3.359 billion yuan, up 28.2% YoY, accounting for 48% of total mineral exploration investment. This indicates enterprises' growing enthusiasm for mineral exploration investment. Going forward, we will take the formal implementation of the new Mineral Resources Law as an opportunity to strengthen basic geological work, intensify the implementation of the new round of strategic mineral exploration breakthrough campaign, and further enhance national energy and resource security capacity.

[Shanxi: Accelerating Construction of New Energy System, Building Nationally Important Energy and Raw Material Base] According to "Shanxi Release" news, on July 9, the Standing Committee of the Shanxi Provincial Party Committee convened an expanded meeting to convey and study General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speeches and instructions during his inspection of Shanxi. The meeting emphasized the need to steadily advance transformational development, firmly shoulder the strategic task of building the National Resource-Based Economic Transformation Comprehensive Reform Pilot Zone entrusted by the CPC Central Committee, further unify thinking, maintain resolve, and accelerate high-quality and sustainable development through transformation. It stressed the need to advance energy transformation, firmly shoulder the political responsibility of safeguarding national energy security, deepen the comprehensive energy revolution pilot reform, accelerate the construction of a new energy system, and build a nationally important energy and raw material base at a high level. Efforts should be made to promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, focus on the main direction of manufacturing revitalization and upgrading, strategically deploy emerging and future industries based on local conditions to develop new quality productive forces, strengthen support from education, science, technology and talent, and gradually form a modern industrial system reflecting Shanxi's characteristics and comparative advantages. The province should adhere to moderately diversified development, leverage comparative advantages in energy resources and historical culture, strive to create a market-oriented, law-based, and international business environment, fully stimulate the vitality of various market entities, and better convert resource advantages into development advantages.

►On July 10, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was set at 7.1510 yuan per US dollar.

US Dollar:

As of 15:03, the US dollar index fell 0.12% to 97.38. The minutes of the US Fed's June 17-18 meeting showed only "several" Fed officials believed an interest rate cut could occur as early as this month, with most preferring cuts later this year due to inflation concerns triggered by Trump's tariff policies. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously decided to maintain interest rates unchanged at its June meeting. The next policy meeting is scheduled for July 29-30.

Macro Focus:

Today will see the release of China's June M2 money supply annual growth rate, China's January-June social financing scale, China's January-June new yuan-denominated loans, US 10-year Treasury auction results (total amount, bid-win rate, high yield) on July 10, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5, and Germany's final June CPI annual rate. Additionally, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will deliver remarks on the US economy and monetary policy, while the Ministry of Commerce holds its second regular press conference in July.

Crude Oil Update:

As of 15:03, oil prices rose in tandem across both markets, with WTI gaining 0.1% and Brent up 0.16%. Investors weighed the potential impact of US tariffs on global growth, while a weaker dollar and signs of robust US gasoline demand supported prices.Z26/>Previously, US President Trump announced via Truth Social that the US will impose 50% tariffs on imported copper starting August 1, 2025. Separately, CCTV News reported that Trump issued letters to Brunei, Algeria, Moldova, Iraq, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Libya, and Brazil on July 9 (local time). The letters stated the US will impose 20% tariffs on Philippine goods, 25% on Brunei and Moldova, 30% on Algeria, Iraq, Sri Lanka, and Libya, and 50% on Brazil from August 1, 2025.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday that US crude inventories rose last week while gasoline and distillate stocks fell, also supporting prices. The EIA noted gasoline demand surged 6% week-on-week to 9.2 million barrels per day. (Comprehensive report from SMM)

SMM Daily Commentary

►Aluminum prices rebound strongly while some regions maintain stable aluminum scrap quotes [SMM Aluminum Scrap Daily]

►[SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily] Nickel salt prices hold steady on July 10

►Z34/>Rare earth prices stabilize; market awaits major producer tenders [SMM Rare Earth Daily]

►Silver prices consolidate amid sluggish spot market trading [SMM Daily]

►Tug-of-war between sellers and buyers keeps spot prices stable [SMM EMM Daily]